Raila Odinga Loses African Union Commission Chairperson Race to Djibouti’s Youssouf

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid for the position of African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson ended in defeat after a tightly contested election held on Saturday in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Despite a strong start, with Odinga leading the first two rounds of voting, he ultimately lost to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf in the seventh and final round of voting.

Youssouf secured 33 votes in the decisive round, surpassing the required two-thirds majority to win the chairmanship. Odinga, who had been the strong contender from Kenya, finished with 22 votes in the sixth round and was eliminated ahead of the final round. Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, who had been in the race, was eliminated after trailing behind the leaders in earlier rounds.

Raila’s loss brings an end to his aspirations of becoming the AUC Chairperson, a role that would have required him to shift focus to continental issues rather than local Kenyan politics. His victory would have meant a significant change in his political trajectory, potentially removing him from Kenya’s political landscape and triggering realignments in local political circles ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Political analysts have speculated that, with the defeat in the AUC race, Raila will return to active Kenyan politics. Many believe he will soon resume leadership within his political party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and could play a key role in shaping Kenya’s political future.

While Raila’s supporters in Kenya have expressed a desire for him to return home and continue shaping national politics, his defeat could also change the political landscape, especially for President William Ruto. Raila’s influence in key vote-rich regions such as Nyanza, Western, and the Coast could have played a crucial role in Ruto’s political strategies for 2027. As some observers note, Raila’s backing could have helped secure a bloc of votes for Ruto in his bid for re-election, particularly from regions feeling alienated by the current administration.

Ruto had been vocal in supporting Raila’s candidacy for the AUC chairmanship, believing it would benefit both the country and his administration, but the loss could now alter his calculations for the upcoming election cycle.

The outcome of the race is a significant moment for Africa’s political future, with Mahamoud Ali Youssouf taking the reins as AUC Chairperson. Youssouf’s extensive diplomatic experience, including his tenure as Djibouti’s foreign minister since 2005, positions him as a seasoned leader for the continent’s critical challenges, including the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Africa’s role in global diplomacy.